RIL to report 32% rise in Q4 PAT, GRMs eyed: ET Now Poll

NEW DELHI: Index heavyweight Reliance IndustriesBSE 0.13 % Ltd is scheduled to release its results for the quarter ended March 31 post market hours on Tuesday, April 16.

The oil & gas major is expected to report a 32 per cent YoY gain in its net profit for the quarter to Rs 5600 crore compared to Rs 4236 crore reported in the correspondind period previous year, according to ET Now poll estimates.

Net sales for the oil & gas major is seen at Rs 93,000 crore, up 9 per cent YoY from Rs 85,182 crore reported in the previous year.

Gross refining margin (GRM) is expected to come at $9.8-$10.5 a barrel in the quarter gone by as against $9.4 a barrel in the previous quarter of the year-ago period.

Analysts will keep a close eye on management commentary on telecom business rollout as well as capital expenditure kept aside for the telecom business in FY14.

Reliance Industries' valuation compared to its peers have shrunk weighed down by regulatory concerns and KG D6 output which has been falling for some time now.

Last week 
RILBSE 0.13 % said in a report that it has shut its ninth well at the main gas fields in the eastern offshore KG-D6 block, leading to output plummeting to an all-time low of 15.5 million standard cubic metres per day (mscmd).

Following are expectations of brokerages from the company's Q4 results:


We expect Reliance to report Rs 55.65 billion in net profit for 4QFY13. While this will be up1 per cent QoQ, momentum has waned markedly in recent weeks as ultra-heavy crude price discounts narrowed and Asian petrochem demand flagged.

Reliance's shrinking valuation premium to peers may be helpful in allowing the shares to track market performance in the near term, but sustained outperformance may need to wait for visibility on growth, which we currently forecast only beyond FY15E.

Deutsche Bank:

Reliance Industries is likely to post expansion in GRMs to US$9.7/bbl from US$7.6/bbl, while petchem margins are also likely to be better.

The brokerage expects the company to report a net profit of Rs 55,489 million for the quarter ended March 2013 against a net profit of Rs 42,360 million in the same period last fiscal.

Ambit Capital:

Expect Reliance Industries' refining margin to be slightly higher QoQ at $9.8/bbl ($9.5/bbl in 2QFY13 and $6.8/bbl in 3QFY12) driven by higher regional refining margin. But crude throughput would be lower due to 2 weeks shutdown during the quarter in one of the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU).

Petrochemical margins would improve QoQ whereas the E&P business would continue to be a drag, with gas production expected to decline ~15 per cent QoQ in 4QFY13 to ~21mmcmd.


Refining margins have improved on a sequential basis on the back of improvement in gasoline andnaphtha spreads. For RIL, this increase along with marginal recovery petrochemical spreads will translate into better margins. Crude oil production from MA-1 field and gas production from KG-D6 field are likely to be lower on a QoQ basis.

Angel Broking:

For RIL, we expect the top-line to increase by 8.0 per cent YoY on account of higher prices of petrochemicals. Its operating profit is expected to increase by 25.0 per cent YoY, which is expected to be partially offset by decline in production from the KG D6 block.

Its PAT is expected to increase by 24.7 per cent YoY, in line with increase in operating income.