There are smiles, accompanied by a few groans. This about sums up the reaction to the earnings report of the third quarter of 2012-13. While there have been hits and misses at the sectoral or company level, the overall results are satisfactory.
The aggregate sales of the BSE-500 companies, which have declared results so far, have gone up by around 15%. They have also achieved a better net profit growth of 24% for this quarter, powered by a low increase in expenses like depreciation (13%) and tax (7%). Says Dipen Shah, head, fundamental research, Kotak Securities: "For most of the companies, the third quarter numbers so far have either been in line with or slightly better than expectations."
One reason for this is the low expectations and downcast mood of the market before the results season. Most analysts had been chipping away at the expected earnings over the past several quarters, bringing it close to the bottom. The good news is that the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the Sensex has not fallen further in this quarter, bucking the trend of the past several quarters.
This signals that the downgrading cycle for corporate earnings has come to an end, at least at the broad market level. Where do we go from here? According to general consensus, India Inc should be able to replicate this good performance in the coming quarters as well. Some are hopeful that it will not only remain steady, but actually improve. "There is a possibility of earnings upgrades in the coming quarters," says Kishor P Ostwal, chairman and managing director, CNI ResearchBSE 4.80 %. This optimism is being fanned by two factors. First, India Inc has shown resilience in an extremely difficult environment and managed to report satisfactory numbers. This means that it should be able to deliver a much better performance when theeconomy picks up.
According to Deven Choksey, managing director, KR Choksey Securities, a mere 1% increase in GDP will result in an improvement of nearly 5% in the corporate earnings. The other factor includes the recent economic reforms unleashed by the government and the trimming of interest rates by the RBI. Both these actions should spur on India Inc in the coming quarters. The overall inflation has also started falling and if it doesn't spike again—the only fear here is the jump in international crude oil prices due to a weakening US dollar—then the apex bank is expected to continue with the rate reduction, which is sure to benefit the entire economy.
